Supercomputer predicts Premier League title race after Liverpool vs Man City draw


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Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola faced off for perhaps the last time on these shores on Sunday, with Liverpool and Manchester City playing out yet another enthralling bout at Anfield.

Duels between the two contemporary monsters aren’t to be missed and perhaps no great Premier League rivalry has delivered more in terms of unfiltered chaos game-by-game.

This contest brought its typical thrills and spills as well as the overwhelming alterations in momentum that Anfield supplies.

In the end, John Stones’ smart opener was cancelled out by a second-half Alexis Mac Allister penalty and City must have left Merseyside content given the barrage they were subjected to in the wake of Liverpool’s equaliser.

The big winners from Sunday’s draw were Arsenal, the third player in this remarkable title race.

The Gunners sit atop the tree for the first time since Boxing Day and here’s how Opta rate the chances of Premier League glory for each of the horses involved in the race.

  • 2023/24 Premier League table

Position

Team

Played

GD

Points

1.

Arsenal

28

+46

64

2.

Liverpool

28

+39

64

3.

Man City

28

+35

63

  • Arsenal’s chances of winning 2023/24 Premier League title

Opta certainly recognised the importance of Sunday’s result for Arsenal, but the supercomputer still isn’t backing Mikel Arteta’s side to end their Premier League title drought this season.

Opta boosted their likelihood of winning the league by 5.8% after the weekend’s results, but they’re still the third-favourites behind Liverpool and City with the computer giving them an 17.6% chance of title glory.

Arsenal won their eighth-straight Premier League game on Saturday, beating Brentford 2-1, but their next domestic outing sees them visit the Etihad on 31 March.

A tricky schedule which includes trips to both Manchester clubs and Tottenham could be playing a role in Opta’s pessimism.

Value

At the start of the season

After 28 matches

Probability of winning the title

4.1%

17.6%

Predicted final league position

2nd

3rd

All data via Opta. Correct as of 11 March 2024.

  • Liverpool’s chances of winning 2023/24 Premier League title

Liverpool have shown they’re in this race for the long haul with a string of excellent performances amid an injury crisis.

Sunday’s draw with Man City was just another example of the Reds performing under pressure when their backs were against the wall.

Targeting more trophies in his farewell tour as manager, Klopp will soon boast a fully-fit squad for the run-in which includes games away at Manchester United and Aston Villa.

Their fixture list is packed with fixtures in the Europa League and FA Cup, while Liverpool were also successful in the Carabao Cup, beating Chelsea in extra time at Wembley.

There will certainly be a few tired legs in the squad right now and there’ll be some more fatigued performances before the season is out, but the Reds have continued to get the job done no matter their injury worries and will keep fighting for silverware until the end of the campaign.

Value

At the start of the season

After 28 matches

Probability of winning the title

3.5%

38.6%

Predicted final league position

3rd

2nd

  • Man City’s chances of winning 2023/24 Premier League title

Man City, who are aiming for a fourth-straight league title, remain the favourites despite their rather concerning second-half showing at Anfield.

Opta did recognise their vulnerability on Sunday, though, and have dashed their chances of title success by 5.5% to 45.9% which is still considerably higher than Liverpool’s 38.6%.

The Cityzens remain well in contention to defend the trophies that formed their 2022/23 treble and can deal a major blow to Arsenal’s title hopes if they win their meeting after the international break before Aston Villa – taken apart 4-0 by Tottenham on Sunday – visit Manchester.

There is a trip to Tottenham in April to deal with, but the rest of City’s fixtures are games Guardiola’s side are undoubtedly expected to win.

Their usual end-of-season form could see the reigning champions power their way to another league title, and right now they are the statisticians’ favourites to come out on top.

Value

At the start of the season

After 28 matches

Probability of winning the title

90.2%

45.9%

Predicted final league position

1st

1st


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