Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta are often framed as master and apprentice but they weren’t singing from the same hymn sheet regarding the seismic nature of Wednesday’s meeting between Manchester City and Arsenal.
After swatting Leicester City aside in mid-April, Guardiola cannily cranked up the pressure on his former assistant by stressing: “It was important for us to win to arrive for the final we have against them [Arsenal] in the next Premier League game.” Arteta disagreed. “It is not a final because there are still six games to go,” he unconvincingly insisted after Arsenal warmed up for their trip to the Etihad with a third consecutive draw.
By only earning a single point against relegation-threatened Southampton last Friday, Arsenal have left the Premier League title race perilously poised.
To avoid any fuzzy mental arithmetic after Wednesday’s final whistle, here is how the Premier League summit will look in every possible scenario.
The Premier League table before Man City vs Arsenal
|
Position |
Team |
Games |
Points |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Arsenal |
32 |
75 |
|
2 |
Man City |
30 |
70 |
Before we delve into the realm of hyperbolic hypotheticals, here’s how the Premier League table stands heading into Wednesday’s contest which technically isn’t a final but certainly warrants a lofty billing.
As they have for all but three nights since the World Cup, Arsenal lead Manchester City at the Premier League summit. The Gunners boast a five-point advantage but could have opened the gap to double digits had they not conspired to drop six points in three games against Liverpool, West Ham and Southampton.
City have systemically reeled Arsenal in by embarking upon their longest winning run of the season which stands at six on the spin in the Premier League going into Wednesday’s match.
How the Premier League title race is affected if Man City beat Arsenal
|
Position |
Team |
Games |
Points |
Maximum points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Arsenal |
33 |
75 |
90 |
|
2 |
Man City |
31 |
73 |
94 |
A Manchester City victory would all but end the title race on Wednesday night.
City would still have seven games of the season left to play but could afford to lose once and still claim top spot even if Arsenal won each and every remaining match.
Arsenal have lost their last 11 Premier League matches against City, taking the lead for a grand total of 26 minutes in this desperately barren stretch.
How the Premier League title race is affected if Arsenal beat Man City
|
Position |
Team |
Games |
Points |
Maximum points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Arsenal |
33 |
78 |
93 |
|
2 |
Man City |
31 |
70 |
91 |
As a four-time Premier League champion, Gabriel Jesus is well-versed in navigating the intricate threads of the varied permutations in a Premier League title race. “If we want to be champions we have to go there and win the game, that is all,” the former City striker bluntly outlined.
If Arsenal live up to the demands of their number nine they will once again be in charge of their own fate. Opening up an eight-point lead on the night, a victory would ensure that if Arsenal win their remaining five matches, they would claim their first Premier League crown since 2004 regardless of what City do after Wednesday.
The title would come down to goal difference if Arsenal beat Manchester City at the Etihad but drew one of their final five games (while Guardiola’s side extracted maximum points thereafter).
How the Premier League title race is affected if Man City and Arsenal draw
|
Position |
Team |
Games |
Points |
Maximum points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Arsenal |
33 |
76 |
91 |
|
2 |
Man City |
31 |
71 |
92 |
Arsenal have not earned so much as a draw against City at the Etihad since May 2016 – before either Guardiola or Arteta had joined the home side’s coaching staff.
If City do fail to secure maximum points in midweek – which would be the first time on home turf against any opponent in 2023 – they would still be in the driving seat regarding the title race. However, there would be no room for error on either side.
Should Wednesday’s showdown end all square, Arsenal would still have a five-point lead above City but the reigning champions have two games in hand on their London rivals – i.e. six extra points up for grabs.
Win both of those – and all their remaining fixtures – and Guardiola would end the season with another Premier League winners medal while Arteta laments what could have been.
Man City’s remaining Premier League fixtures
|
Date & Time |
Fixture |
|---|---|
|
30/04/23 – 14:00 |
Fulham vs Man City |
|
03/05/23 – 20:00 |
Man City vs West Ham |
|
06/05/23 – 15:00 |
Man City vs Leeds |
|
14/05/23 – 14:00 |
Everton vs Man City |
|
21/05/23 – 16:00 |
Man City vs Chelsea |
|
24/05/23 – 20:00 |
Brighton vs Man City |
|
28/05/23 – 16:300 |
Brentford vs Man City |
Arsenal’s remaining Premier League fixtures
|
Date & Time |
Fixture |
|---|---|
|
02/05/2023 – 20:00 |
Arsenal vs Chelsea |
|
07/05/2023 – 16:30 |
Newcastle vs Arsenal |
|
14/05/2023 – 16:30 |
Arsenal vs Brighton |
|
20/05/2023 – 17:30 |
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal |
|
28/05/2023 – 16:30 |
Arsenal vs Wolves |