Real Madrid and Brazil forward Vinícius Júnior is the massive favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or at Monday’s ceremony. We assess why he would be a deserving winner.
The voting process for the Ballon d’Or 2024 isn’t supposed to take this season’s Champions League action into consideration, but Vinícius Júnior nonetheless gave a timely reminder this week that he would be a worthy winner.
The Real Madrid forward is the huge favourite to take home football’s most illustrious individual award at the yearly ceremony on Monday night, and his second-half hat-trick in the comeback win over Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League showcased exactly why that is the case.
In truth, given voting is based on performances and achievements in the months of the European football season – from August 2023 to July 2024 – anything anyone does in individual games in the early months of the campaign is very unlikely to have any impact on that year’s gong.
But given voting for this year’s award has taken place over the months of September and October, Vinícius’ start to the new season will certainly have brought him into the consciousness of the journalists responsible for picking the winner.
So, while Vinícius’ main rivals for this year’s Ballon d’Or, Rodri and Jude Bellingham – according to the betting markets, at least – respectively watch from the sidelines with a season-ending ACL injury and contend with struggles in front of goal, the Brazilian is flying and that will only help his cause.
His latest Champions League exploits have further proved Vinícius as the ultimate big-game player. For anyone who hasn’t yet submitted their votes, his start to this season will surely have tipped the balance. If it needed tipping at all, that is.
In a repeat of last season’s Champions League final, Madrid had gone in 2-0 down at half-time. As the hour mark approached, they were still trailing by two goals. Then, after Antonio Rüdiger had pulled one back, Vinícius hit his stride.
First, he pounced on a loose ball in the box to equalise, and after Lucas Vázquez had put the hosts in front, Vini scored a goal that few others on the planet could score. The kind of goal that makes a Ballon d’Or winner.
Picking the ball up 20 yards outside his own penalty area, right on the touchline in the left-back position, and with nine teammates behind him to defend as Dortmund pushed forward in search of an equaliser, there was little for Vinícius to work with.
Nine seconds later, though, he was on the edge of the Dortmund box, firing in an unstoppable effort to cap a fantastic individual run and put Madrid into an unassailable lead.
At 64.9m, it was the second-longest goal-ending carry by any player in a Champions League match on record (since 2015-16).
The only longer carry that has produced a goal in that time was scored at the very same end by Marco Asensio for Real Madrid against Bayern Munich in the 2017 quarter-final (69.0m).
Vinícius wasn’t done there, though, adding a hat-trick goal with a mazy dribble and vicious finish high into Gregor Kobel’s net in stoppage time.
In Madrid’s time of need, Vinícius was once again there to provide the goods.
Last season, Bellingham produced those moments just as frequently – most memorably with a 90th-minute winner in April’s Clásico win over Barcelona that as good as decided the title – but many of the Englishman’s most telling contributions came earlier in the season.
When it came to the latter stages of the Champions League and the biggest occasions, Vinícius was the go-to guy.
He assisted two of Madrid’s goals in the 3-3 draw with Manchester City in the quarter-final first leg, and then his cross led to Rodrygo putting them in front in the second leg at the Etihad.
He scored both Madrid goals in the semi-final first leg against Bayern, and it was his shot that Manuel Neuer spilled for Joselu to score a late equaliser in the return game.
In the final against Dortmund, he scored the goal that put Madrid 2-0 up and essentially confirmed them as European champions. Again.
He ended last season with six goals and four assists in 10 Champions League appearances. Only Harry Kane (12) was directly involved in more goals in the competition.
But in the knockout stages only, Vinícius produced more goals and assists (six) than anyone else.
It’s worth noting, too, that injuries disrupted the Brazilian’s first half of last season. He was sidelined for 75 days between August and January (according to Transfermarkt) with two separate injuries.
Getting back up to speed would understandably take time on each occasion. But by the time the business end of the season came around, he was very much up and running. Literally.
In the Champions League, his contributions to Madrid’s quick counter-attacks are crucial. They form the foundations of their success in Europe, where they regularly come up against teams who like to dominate the ball.
They concede lots of territory and chances, but are so resilient at the back and deadly on the break that they can beat anyone, despite regularly ‘losing’ the xG battle.
Domestically, playing that way isn’t quite so natural, but despite keeping hold of the ball for long periods, their biggest threat nonetheless remains on the transition.
They led all teams in La Liga last season for fast-break goals, with eight (a goal from a quick attack that follows a regain in their own half of the pitch), despite ranking third for overall possession (59.3%).
Possession and counter-attacks don’t normally go hand in hand, but Madrid manage to make it work. Having a player like Vinícius is a very, very big help.
Despite missing a sizeable chunk of 2023-24 – he played just 1,872 of a possible 3,420 minutes (54.7%) in the league – Vinícius ranked among the best players in La Liga for several key metrics.
For starters, his overall output was genuinely outstanding. Having missed nearly half the season, he still racked up 20 goal involvements (15 goals, five assists), putting him sixth of all players in the division.
Nobody else with more than 15 goal involvements played under 1,900 minutes. But it was for his ball carrying that he stood out most, and in particular following up a carry with a decisive contribution.
Carries are defined as moving at least five metres with the ball, so it may be little surprise for anyone who has seen him play to find out that this is an area in which he shines.
However, the extent of his impact running with the ball means his numbers are still worth looking at.
He ranked fourth in La Liga last season for carries ending in a shot or chance created (44), but he was top of the whole league for the total expected goals value of the shots and chances he created following a carry (6.8 xG).
Only Savinho (10) registered more goals or assists following a carry than him (8). And remember, Vinícius played just 54.7% of available minutes; Savinho played over 1,100 minutes more than him.
He was also in the top 20 in the league for progressive carries – carrying the ball at least 5m upfield – with 276, and ranked ninth for progressive carries of at least 10m (145).
Meanwhile, only Savinho (127) followed up a carry of at least 5m with a successful dribble past an opponent on more occasions than Vinícius (101).
It follows, given how little he played, that when adjusting relative to minutes played, the Real Madrid man shoots up these rankings.
He was third for progressive carries per 90 (13.3) behind Iñigo Martínez (a centre-back) and Frenkie de Jong (a central midfielder), both of whom will naturally have more space to run into as they get on the ball in deeper positions.
Progressive carries is a metric that tends to be dominated by deeper-lying players who bring the ball out of defence – much like Martínez or De Jong at Barcelona.
Vinícius was in the top three for goal-ending (0.2), assist-ending (0.2) and shot-ending carries (1.5) per 90, while he was miles clear at the top for carries followed by a successful dribble per 90 (4.9).
This season, with injuries yet to have any impact on him, he has continued his fine form, again ranking among the best players in La Liga for carries, top of the league for shot-ending carries (12) and third for xG from carries ending in a shot or chance created (2.6).
Madrid are going through a bit of a transition period, in that they are adjusting to life after Toni Kroos and have added Kylian Mbappé to their front line.
There have been a couple of hiccups so far, including the shock Champions League defeat to Lille, and they are three points behind Barcelona at the top of La Liga heading into this weekend’s El Clásico.
Last week, they toiled against Celta Vigo and may not have had too many complaints had they come away with nothing. Only, Vinícius was on hand to provide another match-winning goal.
With five goals and four assists in 10 La Liga appearances this season, Vinícius has picked up where he left off last term.
With six goals and three assists in his last seven games in all competitions, he is timing his current run of form perfectly for the Ballon d’Or announcement.
But it is for both his consistency and his key contributions in telling moments last season that he deserves to win the award.
To say Vinícius carried Madrid to glory last season would be a stretch, but it also wouldn’t be entirely inaccurate.